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June 2011 Blog Posts (148)

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SMF Notes WRAPX S&P futures vs fair value: -0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.45.

 Futures are pointing to a somewhat flat open following a muted overseas session. Overnight trade in Asia was mixed (Hang Seng -0.2%, Nikkei +0.3%, Shanghai Composite +1.4%) following Chinese Manufacturing PMI easing to 52.0, a nine-month low. While the number topped estimates of 51.6, it showed the world's second largest economy is slowing. Also out was HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI which ticked up to 51.6 from 51.1. Australian GDP contracted 1.2% QoQ (-1.1% QoQ… Continue

Added by ken flagg on June 1, 2011 at 1:08pm — No Comments

SMF Notes U.S. Economic Data

MBA Mortgage Applications (7am)- Has been up four of the past five weeks but has not helped improve the outlook on the markets yet.

May Challenger Job Cuts (7:30 am)- Prior -5.0%

May ADP Employment Change (8:15am)- 170K Briefing.com consensus, prior 179K

May ISM Manufacturing Index (10am)- Briefing.com consensus 57.6; April… Continue

Added by ken flagg on June 1, 2011 at 12:31pm — No Comments

SMF Notes SUMRX Overnight Summary -- World markets generally flat to down amidst slowing in Manufacturing PMI data

 There seems to be a recurring theme tonight of Manufacturing PMI data that is showing slight signs of slowing down. China's PMI hit a 9-month low, though still beating expectations. France, Germany and UK all posted data below expectations, leading to a miss in the Eurozone number. Japan is the outperformer so far tonight as a BOJ official commented that supply restraints are easing quicker than anticipated. This echoed sentiment by Novellus (NVLS) in its mid-Q… Continue

Added by ken flagg on June 1, 2011 at 12:05pm — No Comments

SMF Notes Downgrades:

Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT 14.27) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at FBR Capital; tgt $14. Firm notes shares are up nearly 60% since their upgrade in January (S&P 500 up 6%) and going forward they see total return more in line with the +10%--20% seen for the sector over the next year. In firm's view, the 60% rise has priced in a fair portion of the potential for a significant dividend increase as well as upside from the recently acquired Highland… Continue

Added by ken flagg on June 1, 2011 at 12:01pm — No Comments

SMF Notes WYNN Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reports May gross rev +42% YoY to a new record ~$3.04 bln (146.52 )

 Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reports May gross rev +42.4% YoY to record 24.31 bln patacas (~$3.04 bln), vs. +94% in May 2010, +45% in April and +48% in March of 2011. This is the 5th new all-time record in the last 6 months... Casino stocks with exposure to Macau: MPEL, AERL -- pure plays, WYNN ~69% of Q1 net rev and ~67% of Q1 adj. EBITDA, LVS ~55% of Q1 net rev and ~51% of Q4 adj. EBITDA, MGM; ETF: BJK.…

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Added by ken flagg on June 1, 2011 at 11:54am — No Comments

SMF Notes MSFT Microsoft: Windows 8 signposts emerging? - Collins Stewart (25.01 )

 Collins Stewart notes MSFT's valuation on a P/E and EV/CFO basis is less than that of CA (CA) and Symantec (SYMC), both perceived to be minimal growth cos, implying that investors think MSFT will shrink. The concern is that tablets will cannibalize PC's and that MSFT will not be a significant player in tablets. MSFT will need to either grow PC sales in the face of solid tablet demand and/or present its own credible tablet product. They note MSFT is rumored to… Continue

Added by ken flagg on June 1, 2011 at 11:44am — No Comments

SMF Notes AAPL AAPL supply chain is pointing to continued growth across the Mac product line; LPL's market share with Apple is on the decline - Ticonderoga (347.83 )

 Ticonderoga notes research surrounding the AAPL supply chain in Taiwan is pointing to continued growth across the Mac product line in the June quarter with strength in products such as the MacBook Pro and MacBook Air. Firm expects Apple to launch an updated MacBook Air this summer that is both thinner and lighter than the one released last fall. It believes LPL's market share with Apple is on the decline as Taiwan LCD panel suppliers gain share across Apple's… Continue

Added by ken flagg on June 1, 2011 at 11:35am — No Comments

SMF Notes ECONX ISM Preview

 The ISM Manufacturing Index softened in April as the index fell from 61.2 in March to 60.4. The Briefing.com consensus expects the index declined to 57.6 in May. Unfortunately, the consensus may still be too optimistic about the current state of manufacturing. The weakening appears to be widespread and does not bode well for the ISM level. Every regional manufacturing survey declined in May and most have been trending down for the past couple of months. This…

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Added by ken flagg on June 1, 2011 at 11:31am — No Comments

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