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July 2011 Blog Posts (135)

SMF Notes Going back to April correction bear reversal



Nasdaq Composite Stock Market Correction Bear Reversal & Market

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPjfTdei8MI&feature=player_detailpage

S&P 500 Index Stock Market Correction Bear Reversal & Market…

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Added by ken flagg on July 29, 2011 at 4:43pm — No Comments

SMF Morning Notes 7/29/2011

SMF Notes GDP - Q2 Advance - Preview

After increasing 1.9% in the first quarter, the Briefing.com consensus expects real GDP increased only 1.7% in the second quarter. Signs of strong growth were almost completely offset by areas of weakness. For example, the net export deficit contracted in the second quarter, but its contribution to GDP growth was offset by weaker consumption levels. Similarly, stronger…

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Added by ken flagg on July 29, 2011 at 2:30pm — No Comments

SMF Notes Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GMCR +18.8%, AXTI +11.3%(also files universal shelf registration statement for up to $60 mln, upgraded to Buy at Needham), CROX +9.3%, NEI +9.1%, LSI +8.7%, SPN +7.4%, MF +7.4% (ticking higher), SKX +6.4%(also upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T), IDCC +6.1%, BBX +5.8%, EQIX +5.5%(upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), GT +5.1%, POT +4.3%, BSX +4.3%,  ELNK +3.7%, SYMC +3.2%(also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Wunderlich),… Continue

Added by ken flagg on July 28, 2011 at 8:43am — No Comments

SMF Notes CME Group beats by $0.18, beats on revs (278.51 ) :

 Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $4.38 per share, $0.18 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $4.20; revenues rose 3.0% year/year to $838.3 mln vs the $819.6 mln consensus. The company expects 2011 total operating expense of $1.235 billion, down from $1.26 billion. The company expects 2011 total capital expenditures of $165 million, down from $180 million. For the second half of 2011, the company estimates an effective tax rate of approximately 42.5…

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Added by ken flagg on July 28, 2011 at 8:40am — No Comments

SMF Notes S&P futures vs fair value: -0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80.

Equity futures are pointing to a flat open as debt ceiling talks make little progress in Washington. Earnings reports continue to come out mostly better than expected as Visa (V) and Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) were among the companies to beat on both the top and bottom lines following yesterday's close while CME Group (CME) bettered expectations this morning. Earnings results were not all good as IMAX Corp. (IMAX) and Pulte Group (PHM) both missed. Treasuries… Continue

Added by ken flagg on July 28, 2011 at 8:36am — No Comments

SMF Notes Initial Claims Preview

After falling below the upper bound (410,000) of our "Recovery Zone" for the first time since April 15, the initial claims level increased from 408,000 for the week ending July 9 to 418,000 for the week ending July 16. The Briefing.com consensus expects the initial claims level fell slightly to 415,000 for the week ending July 23. That forecast may prove to be optimistic. The increase in claims last week was actually lessened by favorable seasonal adjustment… Continue

Added by ken flagg on July 28, 2011 at 8:31am — No Comments

SMF Notes GMCR Green Mtn Coffee beats by $0.14,

 beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus -- Stock is halted (88.14 -3.92)

Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $0.49 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.35; revenues rose 126.5% year/year to $717.2 mln vs the $606.8 mln consensus. ~82% of consolidated net sales in the third quarter were from the Keurig brewing… Continue

Added by ken flagg on July 27, 2011 at 4:32pm — No Comments

SMF Notes CROX Crocs reports Q2 (Jun) results, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus,

 revs above consensus (26.76 -0.39)

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.61 per share, may not be comparable to the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.44. Company says it benefited from modifications in tax treaties in its international businesses which together with other tax planning resulted in an effective tax rate below 15% for the quarter. Revenues rose 29.6% year/year to $295.6 mln vs the $281.7 mln consensus. Co… Continue

Added by ken flagg on July 27, 2011 at 4:30pm — No Comments

SMF Notes Floor Talk:

 Nervousness grows about debt deal; VIX now +29% on the week

The market has taken out its morning lows and is now at its worst levels of the day/week (Dow -175, SPX -24, Nasdaq Comp -69). The weakness is an extension of pressure that has been building all week, as nervousness grows about the U.S. debt situation. Although the U.S. debt deadline of August 2nd has been known for quite some time, it didn't cause…

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Added by ken flagg on July 27, 2011 at 4:26pm — No Comments

SMF Notes V Visa Q3 earnings preview (87.80 -1.40) -Update-

Visa will report Q3 (June) earnings after the bell with a call to follow at 17:00 ET. Analysts are looking for EPS of $1.23 (+27%) on net revenue of $2.30 bln (+13%). Visa is expected to reaffirm its FY11 and FY12 financial outlook as mgmt presented the outlook just two weeks ago following the release of the final rules of debit card interchange regulation (the Durbin Amendment).

On July 6, Visa reaffirmed its…

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Added by ken flagg on July 27, 2011 at 4:25pm — No Comments

SMF Notes Currency, world region, commodity futures, & domestic sector ETF & ETN performance:

 VIX futures surge (VXX) as spot VIX nears 23 on mounting fears of US credit default; USD (UUP) bounce back vs. major currencies; Tech. space relative weakness (IGN, XSD, SKYY) weighs on broad market today

ETFs and ETNs Posting Relative Strength & Outperformance:

VIX futures- VXX +6%, VXZ +2.5%, cotton futures- BAL +2%, USD- UUP +0.75%, MENA Frontier countries-…

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Added by ken flagg on July 27, 2011 at 4:24pm — No Comments

SMF Notes Earnings Calendar

Today after the close look for the following companies to report:

HUBG, KNX, LRCX, NSR, AMP, HMA, HURN, CBG, CLUB, HMN, SFN, SGMO, STR, TMK, UHS, AEA, AFFX, AFL, AIZ, AKAM, ARII, ARRS, AVB, BDN, CCI, CHRM, CINF, COG, CSGP, CTXS, DAVE, DRCO, DRE, DUF, EFX, EGN, EQIX, EQR, FLS, FR, GGG, HGR, HRC, IDCC, IFSIA, ISIL, ISSI, ITRI, JAH, KAI, KALU, KBR, KEX, LOGI, LOGM, LOOP, LSI, MANT, MBLX, MERU, MRH, MTSN, OI, OII, ORLY,…

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Added by ken flagg on July 27, 2011 at 4:22pm — No Comments

SMF Notes Another Sign that Weakness in Durables May Be Temporary

Durable goods orders fell 2.1% in June, which is the second decline in the past three months. The Briefing.com consensus expected orders to increase 0.5%. While the durable goods report may seem weak on the surface, it is actually another sign that businesses expect the recent slowdown in demand to be only temporary. Strong growth was seen in primary and fabricated metal demand. These goods are typically used as inputs in more complex manufacturing processes.…

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Added by ken flagg on July 27, 2011 at 4:00pm — No Comments

SMF Notes Befor the open 7/27/11

SMF Notes Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ESIO +13.9%, QCOR +10.4%, KEYN +10%, TPX +7.3%, RFMD +6.7%, AMZN +5.8%, LAD +5.8%, KEM +5.7% (light volume), CAP +5.6%, HTCH +4.9%, IRBT +4.8%, LVS +4.8%, IGT +4.6%, DWA +4.4%, GNK +4.2%, WYN +3.3%, AET +3.2%, MT +2.6%, BA +2.6%, ERTS +2.5% (light volume), DOW +2.2%, EXC +2.1% (light volume), MCO +1.8% (light volume), TMO +1.1%, NSC…

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Added by ken flagg on July 27, 2011 at 8:30am — No Comments

SMF Notes Today's biggest point gainers/losers

 Biggest point gainers: NFLX (283.73 +7.15), AAPL (399.34 +6.04), MA (318.14 +4.00), CNH (41.25 +3.96), CYOU (49.19 +3.23), ROP (87.46 +3.00), CLB (112.00 +2.69), BIDU (156.35 +2.35), ADS (99.91 +2.26), SOHU (86.33 +2.19), TZOO (61.24 +1.84), UNP (105.50 +1.70), CF (161.94 +1.69), ETN (52.82 +1.66), AGCO (50.57 +1.63), CPX (42.48 +1.61), BAS (36.27 +1.60), DTLK (10.90 +1.55), MON (76.91 +1.50), BC (21.30 +1.48), RBA (29.28 +1.46), SLB (95.11 +1.30), ALB (68.14…

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Added by ken flagg on July 25, 2011 at 2:22pm — No Comments

SMF Notes Currency, world region, commodity futures, & domestic sector ETF & ETN performance:

 

 Wind energy (FAN) remains a top performing segment; VIX futures (VXX) remain elevated even with SPX well off lows; CRB agriculture & food components (NIB, SGG, JJG) trade lower

 

ETFs and ETNs Posting Relative Strength & Outperformance:

wind energy- FAN +3.5%, VIX futures- VXX +2%, VXZ +1.25%, B2B- BHH…

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Added by ken flagg on July 25, 2011 at 1:18pm — No Comments

SMF Notes New highs (53) outpace new lows(25)

New 52 week highs include: AEE, ATRO, AUY, BDSI, BIDU, CAG, CEG, CF, CHSI, CMG, CPX, CROX, CRR, CVI, CYOU, DGII, DMRC, DRC, DTLK, EDR, EQT, EXC, FTK, GDI, GLF, GRT, GSK, HAYN, HNSN, IDIX, KOF, MPEL, NEPT, NXST, NZT, PBT, PDS, PLNR, POL, PPL, RGLD, RPTP, SAH, SCSC, SLB, SWN, TESO, TMH, TNH, WGL, WNR, WPI, WTI

New 52 week lows include: AMR, BPOP, BTN, CCM, CRRC, DAL, DSX, EXM, FGP, HDB, HGSI, HNP, LCC, LUV, NAT,…

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Added by ken flagg on July 25, 2011 at 1:14pm — No Comments

SMF Notes Market Internals

 The Dow is down 43 (0.3%) to 12638, the S&P 500 is down 4 (0.3%) to 1341 and the Nasdaq is down 4 (0.1%) to 2855. Action has come on light volume (NYSE 308 mln vs. avg of 356 mln; NASDAQ 739 bln vs. avg. of 843 mln), with decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE advancers/decliners 753/2208, NASDAQ advancers/decliners 776/1758) and with new highs narrowly outpacing new lows (NYSE new highs/new lows 35/33 NASDAQ new highs/new lows…

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Added by ken flagg on July 25, 2011 at 1:13pm — No Comments

SMF Notes NFLX NASDAQ 100 (NDX, QQQ) strength & weakness:

 NFLX (+2.8%) posting a firm bid ahead of tonight's qtrly. earnings; BIDU (+0.80%) jump to new 52-week highs @ 157.33 ahead of earnings results due later this eve 

 

NDX 10 Best % Performers:

NFLX, CTRP, INTU, ATVI, WFM, ERTS, BIDU, MSFT, VMED, SYMC

NDX 10 Worst %…

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Added by ken flagg on July 25, 2011 at 1:12pm — No Comments

SMF Notes FSLR First Solar initiated with a Buy at Auriga; tgt $157 (124.12 )

 Auriga initiates FSLR with a Buy and price target of $157 saying the co is the solar PV industry's low cost leader with a flexible business model targeted at the solar module and solar power project markets. They believe First Solar's efficient manufacturing, solid operational track record, and strong balance sheet positions it better than its peers to weather the continued ASP pressure across the solar PV value chain.…

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Added by ken flagg on July 25, 2011 at 1:09pm — No Comments

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