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SMF Notes CF CF Industries conf call, at Credit Suisse, summary (96.49 -1.87)
CF said that 2011 U.S. crop budgets clearly favors corn. to 92 mln acres, which would be the second highest amount ever planted. CF said it's a good time to be a North American fertilizer producer. Drivers that are favorable for CF include grain prices, expected spring plantings, expected fall application window, fertilizer prices, fertilizer inventories and natural gas prices. Co notes that its U.S. fertilizer demand outlook is the best since 2007. 2010 nitrogen demand is expected to grow 6.5% to 12,812 nutrient tons, phosphorus is expected to grow 14.8% to 4,188 nutrient tons and potassium is expected to grow 21.5% to 3,967 nutrient tons.
CF's view on urea has changed a little. Inventory levels are a little lower. They thought there was going to be some oversupply in urea, but they don't see that now. On balance, the global balance is tighter than what it was a month ago. CF said that North America now has a gas advantage. 2010 gas cost/MMBtu: U.S. Gulf producer $4.75, Ukrainian producer $6.80. CF says it has operational advantages compared to nitrogen swing producers. The company is increasing its synergy realization to greater than $135 mln from $105-135 mln.
CF's view on urea has changed a little. Inventory levels are a little lower. They thought there was going to be some oversupply in urea, but they don't see that now. On balance, the global balance is tighter than what it was a month ago. CF said that North America now has a gas advantage. 2010 gas cost/MMBtu: U.S. Gulf producer $4.75, Ukrainian producer $6.80. CF says it has operational advantages compared to nitrogen swing producers. The company is increasing its synergy realization to greater than $135 mln from $105-135 mln.
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